Are we set for a repeat of the fuel protests from earlier this year? The cuts won by protestors to the excise duties we pay on fuel are due to expire shortly and if the Government begins to restore them, it is very likely that truckers and farmers will take to the streets again.
The protests, if you recall, were sparked by the US/Israel/Iran war in February. Oil prices soared. The most affected were obviously those whose jobs involve lots of driving. It just so happens that truckers and farmers are some of the most important workers we have. Goods need to be delivered, and farms need to be farmed.
If the cost of fuel makes farming and deliveries to shops and so on economically unviable, then we are all in trouble.
When introducing the cuts, the Government hoped the conflict in Iran would be over by now and oil prices would have stabilised near pre-war levels; however, those expectations have not materialised.
Even now the cost of petrol and diesel is tipping €2 per litre, and if the Government rolls back the cuts from earlier in the year, you can add another 30c or so a litre to that.
This would make for a very tough winter indeed for lots of us, and not just the truckers and farmers. Heating bills will be astronomical. Plenty of people will have to choose between food and fuel. This dilemma was already widespread. It will become more so now. Organisations like the Society of St Vincent de Paul are going to have a very busy time of it as the cost-of-living crisis bites even deeper.
Consequences
There is no end currently in sight to the Iran war. President Trump warned last week that Americans must pay higher fuel prices for the time being in return for taming the extremist regime in Iran. American voters are likely to take a very different view come the American mid-term elections in November when every seat in the House of Representatives is up for grabs, and a third of Senate seats.
Those elections are still three months away, by which point we will be getting deeper into winter”
In mid-terms, the party of whoever is in the White House usually gets a kicking from voters, but the rebuff coming the way of Trump’s fellow Republicans could be especially big, and most people around the world will be glad when it happens.
But even assuming the Republicans are badly beaten, those elections are still three months away, by which point we will be getting deeper into winter. A miraculous end to the Iran war will have to happen in the meantime if fuel prices are to fall soon.
Post election, Trump may still not find it easy to end the war. So, who knows how much longer all this will drag on?
The ironic thing is that Trump campaigned both in 2016, when he won his first president election, and second time in 2024, that he would not begin wars like some of the predecessors did.
Criticism
He had been extremely critical of the ‘forever wars’ started by George W Bush in places like Afghanistan and Iraq. Trump was supposed to be the last person who would start a war with Iran. He has not yet sent in ground troops, but his actions (partly at the behest of Israel) have led to the closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz through which much of the world’s oil and gas passes, and to disruption of supplies through the Red Sea.
On top of all this, it has been a terrible summer for farmers in Ireland and across Europe”
Trump’s vanity seems to have gotten the better of him. He thought he would be the president who finally solved the Iran problem, but for now he has only made it worse. He is hoping that the Iranian regime suddenly surrenders or collapses. Who knows what might happen, but at the moment both scenarios look unlikely.
Then there is the continuing war in Ukraine. When Russia invaded that country in 2022, it sparked a fuel crisis even worse than the one we’re in now. A lot of Europe used cheap Russian gas which is now more or less gone from the European supply chain. The effect of that on the cost of energy still lingers and the Ukraine war has no end in sight either.
In addition, the war added to fertiliser costs because gas is used to make fertiliser. Increased fuels costs and energy costs obviously add to the price of food.
The Iran war is also adding to the cost of fertiliser and making fertilisers scarcer, full stop.
On top of all this, it has been a terrible summer for farmers in Ireland and across Europe. Even a city-slicker like me can see that the grass is not growing.
This will also add to the cost of food. Dr Oliver Browne of UCC is forecasting that the average family may have to pay an extra €1,000 per annum for food before too long if the present farming crisis continues.
In due course there may be actual food shortages.
In other words, we are in the proverbial perfect storm. What can the Government do? Well, it can’t end the wars in Ukraine or Iran. Nor can it do anything about the weather. It would like to do something about rising temperatures in the form of more wind farms and so on, but some of the measures to combat climate change, like carbon taxes, add even more to our bills. In any event, no matter what we do to combat climate change, we are so small it will make absolutely no difference to anything.
If it does, expect clashes between truckers and farmers on the one side, and Gardai on the other”
That essentially means that the Government will have to leave the cuts to excess duties on fuel in place. As The Irish Daily Mail reported on Monday, “A swathe of ministers have warned the Taoiseach and Tánaiste it would be politically impossible to restore excise duties on petrol after September 1 [when they are due to expire], as oil prices have not returned to levels seen before the US attack on Iran”.
An unnamed “senior Fianna Fáil figure” warned, “There is fury out there”.
That fury could easily erupt again like it did earlier in the year. If it does, expect clashes between truckers and farmers on the one side, and Gardaí on the other. How will the public respond? In the previous protests, they mainly sided with the protestors, according to opinion polls.
The Government is going to have to play its cards extremely carefully in the weeks ahead or expect a winter of discontent such as we have not seen in a very long time, if ever.
Tractors and trucks line O’Connell Street during fuel protests in Dublin on April 10, 2026, with one tractor displaying a ‘No Fuel, No Food’ sign. Photo: Wikimedia Commons/ ComplexRational.
Is a winter of discontent looming?
Are we set for a repeat of the fuel protests from earlier this year? The cuts won by protestors to the excise duties we pay on fuel are due to expire shortly and if the Government begins to restore them, it is very likely that truckers and farmers will take to the streets again.
The protests, if you recall, were sparked by the US/Israel/Iran war in February. Oil prices soared. The most affected were obviously those whose jobs involve lots of driving. It just so happens that truckers and farmers are some of the most important workers we have. Goods need to be delivered, and farms need to be farmed.
If the cost of fuel makes farming and deliveries to shops and so on economically unviable, then we are all in trouble.
When introducing the cuts, the Government hoped the conflict in Iran would be over by now and oil prices would have stabilised near pre-war levels; however, those expectations have not materialised.
Even now the cost of petrol and diesel is tipping €2 per litre, and if the Government rolls back the cuts from earlier in the year, you can add another 30c or so a litre to that.
This would make for a very tough winter indeed for lots of us, and not just the truckers and farmers. Heating bills will be astronomical. Plenty of people will have to choose between food and fuel. This dilemma was already widespread. It will become more so now. Organisations like the Society of St Vincent de Paul are going to have a very busy time of it as the cost-of-living crisis bites even deeper.
Consequences
There is no end currently in sight to the Iran war. President Trump warned last week that Americans must pay higher fuel prices for the time being in return for taming the extremist regime in Iran. American voters are likely to take a very different view come the American mid-term elections in November when every seat in the House of Representatives is up for grabs, and a third of Senate seats.
In mid-terms, the party of whoever is in the White House usually gets a kicking from voters, but the rebuff coming the way of Trump’s fellow Republicans could be especially big, and most people around the world will be glad when it happens.
But even assuming the Republicans are badly beaten, those elections are still three months away, by which point we will be getting deeper into winter. A miraculous end to the Iran war will have to happen in the meantime if fuel prices are to fall soon.
Post election, Trump may still not find it easy to end the war. So, who knows how much longer all this will drag on?
The ironic thing is that Trump campaigned both in 2016, when he won his first president election, and second time in 2024, that he would not begin wars like some of the predecessors did.
Criticism
He had been extremely critical of the ‘forever wars’ started by George W Bush in places like Afghanistan and Iraq. Trump was supposed to be the last person who would start a war with Iran. He has not yet sent in ground troops, but his actions (partly at the behest of Israel) have led to the closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz through which much of the world’s oil and gas passes, and to disruption of supplies through the Red Sea.
Trump’s vanity seems to have gotten the better of him. He thought he would be the president who finally solved the Iran problem, but for now he has only made it worse. He is hoping that the Iranian regime suddenly surrenders or collapses. Who knows what might happen, but at the moment both scenarios look unlikely.
Then there is the continuing war in Ukraine. When Russia invaded that country in 2022, it sparked a fuel crisis even worse than the one we’re in now. A lot of Europe used cheap Russian gas which is now more or less gone from the European supply chain. The effect of that on the cost of energy still lingers and the Ukraine war has no end in sight either.
In addition, the war added to fertiliser costs because gas is used to make fertiliser. Increased fuels costs and energy costs obviously add to the price of food.
The Iran war is also adding to the cost of fertiliser and making fertilisers scarcer, full stop.
On top of all this, it has been a terrible summer for farmers in Ireland and across Europe. Even a city-slicker like me can see that the grass is not growing.
This will also add to the cost of food. Dr Oliver Browne of UCC is forecasting that the average family may have to pay an extra €1,000 per annum for food before too long if the present farming crisis continues.
In due course there may be actual food shortages.
In other words, we are in the proverbial perfect storm. What can the Government do? Well, it can’t end the wars in Ukraine or Iran. Nor can it do anything about the weather. It would like to do something about rising temperatures in the form of more wind farms and so on, but some of the measures to combat climate change, like carbon taxes, add even more to our bills. In any event, no matter what we do to combat climate change, we are so small it will make absolutely no difference to anything.
That essentially means that the Government will have to leave the cuts to excess duties on fuel in place. As The Irish Daily Mail reported on Monday, “A swathe of ministers have warned the Taoiseach and Tánaiste it would be politically impossible to restore excise duties on petrol after September 1 [when they are due to expire], as oil prices have not returned to levels seen before the US attack on Iran”.
An unnamed “senior Fianna Fáil figure” warned, “There is fury out there”.
That fury could easily erupt again like it did earlier in the year. If it does, expect clashes between truckers and farmers on the one side, and Gardaí on the other. How will the public respond? In the previous protests, they mainly sided with the protestors, according to opinion polls.
The Government is going to have to play its cards extremely carefully in the weeks ahead or expect a winter of discontent such as we have not seen in a very long time, if ever.
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